Boeing’s Commercial Aircraft Demand Forecast Bullish Despite Short-Term Headwinds

Boeing indicated Tuesday it is bullish about aircraft demand over the next two decades, even as airlines face slumping travel demand in the short term due to rising Covid-19 cases and travel restrictions. Boeing stock ticked up on the news.


The aerospace giant said in a press release that it sees demand for 19,000 new commercial aircraft with a book value of $3.2 trillion over the next 10 years. It sees demand for 43,500 new commercial aircraft, valued at $7.2 trillion, over the next 20 years. That’s an increase of 500 aircraft over its 2020 outlook.

“As our industry recovers and continues to adapt to meet new global needs, we remain confident in long-term growth for aerospace,” Boeing Chief Strategy Officer Marc Allen said in the release.

Boeing stock rose 0.5% to 215.64 in morning trades on the stock market today. U.S.-listed shares of European rival Airbus (EADSY) dipped 0.6% to 33.72.

Boeing Stock: Narrow-Body Jets Dominate Forecasts

Narrow-body jets continue to dominate Boeing’s demand forecasts. Boeing expects carriers to need more than 32,500 single-aisle jets over the next two decades, roughly in line with Boeing’s pre-pandemic outlook.

The company’s 737 Max returned to service in the U.S. late last year following a 20-month grounding, and Boeing stock started to climb. Orders are starting to pick up again with Ryanair (RYAAY) ordering 75 more 737 Max-8 jets in December.

Airlines will need over 7,500 widebody jets by 2040, down 8% from Boeing’s 2019 estimate.

Short-haul flights in the U.S. have rebounded as Covid-19 vaccination rates climb. But many long-haul international flights remain grounded amid growing travel restrictions. Boeing expects long-haul travel to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 to 2024.

Boeing stock attempted a breakout from a cup-with-handle base in March, but has since steadily declined. Its Relative Strength Rating now stands at 23 out of a best-possible 99.

Follow Gillian Rich on Twitter for aviation news and more.


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