NTPC, PGCIL, CESC, Tata Power – February Saw Slight Uptick In Demand: HDFC Securities

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HDFC Securities Institutional Equities

Generation growth declined by 0.7% YoY in January 2022, as demand was muted due to partial lockdowns in states (amid concerns of a third Covid-19 wave) and the peak winter season. In the month-to-date February 2022 period, however, demand growth stood at 3.4% YoY, as lockdowns have eased and temperatures have risen slightly.

Coal dispatches to the power sector surged by 40% YoY to 63.2 million tonne in Jan-22. Lower power demand and improved coal supply led to a 3.4 times increase in coal stocks at stations, compared to the critical levels of October 2021.

The base deficit/peak deficit remained flat month-on-month at 0.3%/0.1%, while the merchant rate surged to Rs 4.2/unit in Feb-2022. As of Feb, discoms’ outstanding dues have risen to Rs 1,077 billion (up 19.5% YoY/up 1.0% month-on-month).

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