Headwinds to take into consideration BEFORE investing in what they identify as risk on assets:
06/03 – (Updated Macro View)
JOBS REPORT – Est 325K / Actual 390,000
Continued USD Dominance! – TVC:DXY – (102.18) Upward momentum since 07/2021 (from 89.47 – 103.57)
FED TALK – Mester says hasn’t peaked, MULTIPLE half-point rate hikes are needed – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/03/feds-mes…
06/02 – (Updated Macro View)
Jamie Dimon’s Hurricane Comment: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-di… (People should take not coming from Jamie, potential significant heads up)
Latest ISM Report (May 2022) OUTLOOK: Anything above 50% is considered growth
Manufacturing PMI – 56.1% – https://www.ismworld.org/supply-manageme…
Services PMI – 55.9% – https://www.ismworld.org/supply-manageme…
Hospital PMI – 56.3% – https://www.ismworld.org/supply-manageme…
April Jobless Claims in at 200K (Extremely low) :
Crude Prices: <a href=”https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart”>Macrotrends</a>
Covid / Monkey Pox / Viral flavor of the month (Fear Tactics)
Supply Chain Challenges
Manufactured slowdowns of goods…for example China closing key manufacturing plants in an attempt to retain pricing power.
Continued FALLING YEN! (Danger Zone)
Housing: Who would have EVER thought the CURE of the housing shortage was higher interest rates. By some sort of miracle, there’s no longer a shortage! https://www.thetitlereport.com/Articles/…
*** CAUTION *** There are significant CRACKS in housing, especially in those areas that enjoyed MASSIVE double-digit gains in most recent years. Looking for WALL ST corps to dump asset inventories so as to not carry negative appreciative assets on their balance sheets. 1 out of 5 homes on the market currently has price reductions already. Look for significant additions of inventory VERY soon as even more people are priced out and corporate landlords like BlackRock will be looking to offset their portfolios not gain. The FED also looking to sell MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) instead of buying them, will force lenders to keep more mortgages on their balance sheets (They are already adjusting for tightening lending requirements. REFI markets with even higher interest rates are almost completely DEAD. Mortgage companies have already begun restructuring (layoffs) of many mortgage personnel.
Looking for a 40-50% reduction in housing prices (Generally speaking, go back to 2016 / 2017 and add 5% to those sales prices and that will provide realistic guidance of where the housing prices will retrace to.
ALL of the above is strictly entertainment and not financial advice. ;-) GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!