Traders who took my Buying signal announced throughout my yesterday’s commentary, can slowly start closing their orders as Profit is too good to be ignored. Personally, I didn’t took the call as I am more than satisfied with my Yearly Profits, and it wasn’t worth a risk for a few pips. Congratulations on Profits!
Gold’s general commentary: The current strong rise above the #1,792.80 Higher Low Lower zone extension came as no surprise as it is next to the Weekly chart Top (possible Triple Top rejection April #22, May #4, July #5). If Gold closes today’s Daily candle in Green and eases off throughout today’s session, I will have a clear (Triple Top on ) rejection with significant potential to retest the #1,752.80 Bottom. What is Highly important to note is that I can spot pattern on (resemblance which means that the same scenario of decline can again occur) which can be indication for reversal – but also I need to follow the Bond Yields rule – with Yields on steep Channel Down and FOMC speech this week, I still think that reversal is not in continuation (Short-term) as Gold is experiencing spikes since Yields and Usd-Jpy pair are losing value with every Hourly candle and testing Lower levels. I was expecting #1,772.80 test on today’s session but this has to be postponed for the tomorrow’s session as Yields may be in jitters due to the general on ATH and unknown outcome of the Fed rate. For me, Yields are more important that trinity of ( DX , Usd-Jpy , Stock markets) met their as an answer for this Gold spikes. All current events are pointing to Short-term recovery continuation, which later on can be used as decent Selling opportunity.
Fundamental analysis: On March #30, when Bond Yields made their first Yearly rise, Gold’s Low was near #1,678.80, which confirms Gold’s strong correlation with Yields, meaning if there were no Trade tensions and indecision of Fed regarding the rate around the corner, it’s current fair value would be near #1,678.80 March’s . Bond Yields should recover last week’s losses and with Gold’s critically , the Selling potential is significant. Hourly 4 chart’s Channel Up has taken a pause and moving off the course to form a #1 – #2 session bias as the absence of economic news throughout today’s session is causing sideways action. Apart from that, last week’s #1,778.80 Lower Low can be distinguished as an strong Support and turning point if Gold tests it and doesen’t break it. Gold’s underlying trend remain (Short-term) and strict Channel Down is demonstrating that my outlook is still unchanged. My initial Targets remain #1,752.80 and #1,727.80 in extension. If you didn’t managed to close your Buying order, it is not an cause for alarm as Bond Yields are still on Lower Low extension.
Technical analysis: Tight session today and personally, I don’t think that U.S. session either can deliver anything important. Gold remains strong on a near new Intra-day High but there are certain aspects that make me sceptical on whether or not this can be sustainable. Those are: Extremely strong Sell-off on Bond notes with the values near the October Support, which will surely need an correction. In addition to that the DX has reversed Intra-day and is near a #4 session Low. Usd-Jpy are also near their #10 session Support. Based on the above, Gold shouldn’t be above its #1,800.80 Medium-term Resistance. The both on the and Hourly 4 chart is idle at best. However, with the Fed uncertainty rising, I won’t be surprised to see a very negative week on Bond Yields, which would be for Gold (only if #1,795.80 breaks) and pause the downtrend. My advice would be to wait for the right opportunity to add Selling orders and that’s definitely not now on E.U. opening. I will update if a good opportunity arises before U.S. session tomorrow.