So I first drew a JNK / TLT chart then put the black tendency line at the JNK / TLT tops. Then I added BTC to the chart. Then I added the curved historical tendency lines to the BTC chart. Plus I added a blue 4 year cycle theory linear line to the BTC chart. I’m not a 4 year market cycle theory person, but I included it for those who are.
Black line (on BTC ) – historical curved tendency line
Blue line (on BTC ) – 4 year market cycle theory line
I added vertical solid lines on the JNK / TLT chart at ratio highs and lows and drew them up into the BTC chart. Vertical dotted lines indicate other significant in the JNK / TLT ratio chart.
JNK = SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield BOND
TLT = ISHARES 20+ Treasury Bond ETH
Vertical solid red lines – Ratio at a low
Vertical solid green lines – Ratio at a high
As I mentioned above, on the BTC ( BLX ) chart I put the black historical curved tendency lines. Plus I put the blue linear (4 year market cycle theory) line for those who believe in this. Why? I think the JNK / TLT line offers another way to help determine that the top is in for BTC . So, no matter what theory you hold to, you can test it as the market matures. Nobody wants to get caught wrong footed stubbornly holding to a target price (including myself) based on theories and tendency beliefs, whichever they may be.
**1)** BTC up/down tendency seems to trend with the JNK / TLT ratio. This makes sense. If a market is taking on risk, well that is good for crypto.
**2)** The JNK / TLT ratio tops, bottoms, and sometimes correlate with the BTC chart, but only sometimes. There were some bullseyes at times.
**3)** The tendency line of the JNK / TLT ratio tops may offer another crypto top indicator. So keep an eye simultaneously to whatever belief you have for your BTC target price. If the JNK / TLT ratio touches the tendency line – watch out.