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Why Lucid will not become another Tesla? for NASDAQ:LCID by mxchen

LCID becomes hot stock recently. There’s strong hot air under its wings and lift stock price higher. Will it become another Tesla? A lot of people think so, but different opinions can be useful for unbiased investment decision.

1. Some of the car brands starting with B, T, F, G, and H are giants in the market. Brand starting with L before Lucid, Lotus might be the only one famous, but it’s for high-end sports car market, far from popular and significant enough in market size. Lexus can be counted as another one, but I’d put it under Toyota family instead of independent car manufacturer.

2. Every major car manufacturer is joining the EV trend. The market is gradually becoming crowded. It’s not one brand leads all era any more.

3. Valuation of Tesla is extremely high. It’s both because of unique market situation like the Covid time liquidity over-abundance, and the potential full eco-system imaginary for Tesla and associated companies under Elon Musk . Any independent car manufacturer will not be able to achieve similar valuation, without an Elon Musk-like figure and a series of extremely successful associated companies.

4. You’d hope major investors of Lucid to be Sillicon Valley VCs like Sequoia, KPMG, etc., instead of Sovereign Investment Funds of Saudi Arab, which is not at the same latitude to connect all high-tech resources to a start-up company.

5. Lucid has an ambitious plan to reach 500,000 vehicles delivery by 2026. If it misses any major quarterly target or guidance, its stock price may drop like a rock. Even if it makes it by 2026, Tesla will by far ahead in total vehicles deliveries. Half a million EVs deliveries may not be something to boast about by that time.

6. Do consumers buy Tesla just because its auto-pilot system, long-range battery, etc.? Probably not, Tesla has become a high-tech icon and highly marketable brand.

There might be other aspects that I miss. However, just based on the above, I’d not put on rosy glasses for Lucid’s future. Its stock price may go up for a while, but definitely not going to be anywhere near Tesla .

For personal analysis fun only, not financial advise or trading advise.

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